Guarantee Calculator
Model how ticket price, venue capacity, and show costs interact to shape the maximum guarantee a show can support. Adjust any input and watch the economics shift in real time.
Ticket Price / Guarantee Calculator
Adjust the inputs to see how ticket price and guarantee constrain each other at a given risk level.
The average price after taxes, fees, and other deductions.
At this ticket price, breakeven supports up to this guarantee
What each input and output means
Every field in the calculator above represents a specific variable in concert economics. Here is what each one means and why it matters.
The number of tickets available for sale in a given venue after holds, kills, and obstructed views are removed. A 12,000-seat arena might have a sellable capacity of 10,000–11,000 depending on stage configuration and production requirements.
Every expense required to produce the show except the artist's compensation: venue rent, stagehands, security, marketing, insurance, catering, local production, and more. These costs are relatively fixed for a given venue and production level—they don't change whether the guarantee is $50,000 or $500,000.
The percentage of sellable capacity that must sell at the average net ticket price to cover all show costs plus the artist guarantee. A 70% breakeven on a 10,000-capacity venue means 7,000 tickets must sell before the promoter earns any margin. Lower is safer for the promoter; higher means more risk.
The weighted-average revenue per ticket after any applicable taxes, facility fees, and other deductions are subtracted. This is the number that actually flows into revenue calculations—not the price the fan sees on the ticket.
The highest guarantee the show can support at the current ticket price and breakeven target. Calculated as gross revenue at breakeven minus non-artist show costs. Push the guarantee above this number and either the ticket price must rise or the breakeven percentage must increase—both add risk.
Total ticket revenue if the show sells exactly to its breakeven target. This is the net ticket price multiplied by the number of breakeven tickets. It represents the minimum revenue scenario the promoter is underwriting when they make the offer.
Gross revenue at breakeven minus non-artist show costs. This is what's left to pay the artist guarantee at the breakeven scenario. If this number is less than the proposed guarantee, the show loses money even if it hits its breakeven target.
Total ticket revenue if every sellable seat is filled at the average net ticket price. This is the theoretical maximum top-line revenue for the event and the starting point for calculating backend potential.
Gross revenue at sellout minus non-artist show costs. This is the net revenue pool that gets split between artist and promoter in a sold-out scenario. The larger this number relative to the guarantee, the more backend potential exists.
The total amount the artist takes home in a sellout scenario under a given backend split. At 85/15, the artist receives 85% of net revenue (or the guarantee, whichever is greater). At 90/10, it's 90%. This is the number artists and their teams should focus on—not just the guarantee—because it represents the real upside of a strong show.
How concert guarantees work
A guarantee is the minimum fee an artist receives to perform, paid regardless of ticket sales. It exists because artists need certainty—they commit months of calendar, book production, route a tour—and the guarantee ensures they get paid even if the promoter misjudges the market. The trade-off is that the promoter bears all the downside risk. If tickets don't sell, the artist still walks with the guarantee. The promoter absorbs the loss.
Guarantees get set through negotiation between the artist's agent and the promoter. The agent's job is to maximize the number. The promoter's job is to evaluate whether the offer makes financial sense—whether the market can support ticket prices high enough to cover the guarantee, the show costs, and leave enough margin to justify the risk. When both sides are disciplined, the guarantee lands in a range that reflects genuine demand.
The fundamental tension is this: a higher guarantee forces a higher ticket price, which suppresses demand. Fewer people buy tickets at higher prices. The show that was supposed to be low-risk because of a conservative breakeven target becomes high-risk because the ticket price required to fund the guarantee exceeds what the market will pay. The guarantee was meant to provide certainty, but when it's set too high, it undermines the very economics that make it payable.
This is why modeling matters. The calculator above lets you see the relationship between these variables in real time. Before anyone signs a deal, both sides should understand what the numbers require—and whether the market can actually deliver.
Deal structures and backend splits
Most concert deals work on a "guarantee versus percentage" basis. The artist receives whichever is greater: the guaranteed fee, or their share of net revenue after show costs. If the show underperforms, the guarantee is the floor. If the show sells well, the artist's percentage of net revenue exceeds the guarantee and they "walk" with the larger number. The calculator's "Artist Walkout Potential" shows this upside scenario.
The split between artist and promoter is typically 85/15 or 90/10, with the larger share going to the artist. At 85/15, the promoter keeps 15% of net revenue on a successful show—their reward for taking all the risk. At 90/10, the promoter's share shrinks further. Marquee acts sometimes negotiate even more aggressively, pushing splits to 92.5/7.5 or beyond. The promoter accepts these terms because the volume and certainty of major tours generate value across their broader business.
How shows settle—together or separately—changes outcomes dramatically. In a crossed (cross-collateralized) deal, all dates on a tour pool into a single settlement. Strong markets offset weak ones before the split happens. In an uncrossed deal, each show settles independently: the artist gets the full guarantee on weak dates and the backend on strong ones. The full article covers crossed vs. uncrossed deals in depth, including how the same tour can produce very different financial outcomes depending on which structure is used.
Frequently asked questions
What is a concert guarantee?
A concert guarantee is the minimum fee an artist is paid to perform, regardless of how tickets sell. The promoter pays this amount whether the show sells out or barely fills half the room. It shifts the financial risk of the event from the artist to the promoter—the artist gets certainty, and the promoter absorbs the downside if ticket revenue falls short.
How do you calculate a concert guarantee?
Start with the ticket price the market will support, multiply by the number of tickets you need to sell to break even, then subtract the non-artist show costs (venue, production, marketing, staffing). The result is the maximum guarantee the show can sustain at that breakeven level. If the guarantee exceeds this number, the ticket price has to go up or the promoter takes on more risk.
What is a typical concert guarantee?
There is no typical concert guarantee. Every guarantee is a function of the venue size, the non-artist show costs, the ticket price the market will bear, and the promoter's risk tolerance. The same artist playing the same city in a different venue with a different cost base will produce a different number. Guarantees range from a few thousand dollars in clubs to several million per date in stadiums, but the number is always specific to the deal—which is why modeling the variables matters more than benchmarking against other offers.
What is a backend split in a concert deal?
A backend split determines how profits above the guarantee get divided between the artist and the promoter. The artist receives whichever is greater: the guarantee or their percentage of net revenue. Typical splits are 85/15 (artist gets 85% of net) or 90/10. If a show grosses well beyond breakeven, the artist's backend can significantly exceed the guarantee—this is the 'walkout potential' shown in the calculator.
What is breakeven in concert promotion?
Breakeven is the percentage of venue capacity that must sell at the average ticket price to cover all show costs plus the artist guarantee. A 70% breakeven target on a 10,000-seat venue means 7,000 tickets must sell before the promoter earns anything. Lower breakeven means less risk for the promoter. Higher guarantees push breakeven higher, which is why the two are always in tension.
What is net ticket price vs. face value?
Face value is the price printed on the ticket. Net ticket price is what the promoter actually receives after taxes, facility fees, and other deductions are removed. All guarantee calculations should use the net ticket price, since that's the revenue the promoter actually controls.
What is the difference between a crossed and uncrossed deal?
In a crossed (cross-collateralized) deal, all shows on a tour settle together—strong markets offset weak ones before the profit split. In an uncrossed deal, each show settles independently, so the artist receives the full guarantee on weak dates while also collecting backend on strong dates. Uncrossed deals favor the artist; crossed deals favor the promoter. The same tour can produce very different financial outcomes depending on which structure is used.
The math behind the deal
This calculator models one show. The full article explores how these economics compound across an entire tour—why the industry negotiates backwards, how deal structure shapes outcomes, and what the consolidation of concert promotion means for artists at every level.